Uncertainty in Vulnerability Models

: In this lesson, we will study sources of uncertainty in spatial multi-criteria evaluation models.

Reading

Tate, E. 2013. Uncertainty Analysis for a Social Vulnerability Index. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103 (3):526–543. doi:10.1080/00045608.2012.700616.

Handout: vulnerability-model-uncertainty

Analysis

As you read Tate (2013), consider the following:

• Which of the model structures described by Tate was used in Malcomb et al (2014)?
• What decisions were made by Malcomb et al (2014) at each of the steps illustrated by Tate in Figure 1, and elaborated in the Sources of Uncertainty section?
• Does Tate give you any ideas about how to evaluate your reproduction of the Malcomb et al (2014) study in terms of:
  • sources of uncertainty (never hurts to double-check)
  • methods to compare your results with the orginial study results

Write down your notes as you read and as we discuss the paper in class so that you can use them in your report on the Malcomb et al (2014) reproduction. You don’t need a seperate blog post for this, but you do need to learn from and cite Tate’s paper in your report on the Malcomb et al (2014) reproduction.

Add to the original study information in your replication report your interpretation on the type of vulnerability model Malcomb et al (2014) have used. Add to the discussion section of your replication report any important sources of uncertainty you have learned about with regards to the Malcomb et al (2014) study.

Back Story

This type of work is getting heated, with articles & responses in the Annals of the American Association of Geographers:

Rufat, S., E. Tate, C. T. Emrich, and F. Antolini. 2019. How Valid Are Social Vulnerability Models? Annals of the American Association of Geographers 109 (4):1131–1153. DOI:10.1080/24694452.2018.1535887.

Flanagan, B., E. Hallisey, J. D. Sharpe, C. E. Mertzlufft, and M. Grossman. 2020. On the Validity of Validation: A Commentary on Rufat, Tate, Emrich, and Antolini’s “How Valid Are Social Vulnerability Models?” Annals of the American Association of Geographers 0 (0):1–6. DOI:10.1080/24694452.2020.1857220.

Rufat, S., E. Tate, C. T. Emrich, and F. Antolini. 2020. Answer to the CDC: Validation Must Precede Promotion. Annals of the American Association of Geographers 0 (0):1–3. DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2020.1857221.

Big Code

Serge Rey just gave a great talk at the AAG Annual Meeting on Big Code in which he referenced the importance of code as text, discussed issues of inclusivity and algorithmic bias in spatial analysis at length, and considered the potential for open source spatial analysis code to become a means for co-production of algorithmic knowledge with communities that have historically been excluded from the field (a very white male crowd).

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